What are the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century? What are the characteristics of the next generation of global leaders? What would you do to shape the global future?
These are from a set of heady questions posed to me recently in a nomination form for a global leadership program. I’ve been well-prepared to be asked — and to answer — these kinds of questions because I recently completed the inaugural Carey Emerging Leaders Program at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School.
As for the the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century, we may want to consider a recent book called The Next 100 Years by George Friedman. In his introduction he points out an important demographic forecast for the 21st century:
“the single most important fact of the twenty- first century: [will be] the end of the population explosion. By 2050, advanced industrial countries will be losing population at a dramatic rate. By 2100, even the most underdeveloped countries will have reached birthrates that will stabilize their populations. The entire global system has been built since 1750 on the expectation of continually expanding populations. More workers, more consumers, more soldiers—this was always the expectation. In the twenty- first century, however, that will cease to be true. The entire system of production will shift. The shift will force the world into a greater dependence on technology—particularly robots that will substitute for human labor, and intensified genetic research (not so much for the purpose of extending life but to make people productive longer).”
(If that last bit seems a little far-fetched, consider a recent article in the New York Times describing “drones in development [at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio that are] designed to replicate the flight mechanics of moths, hawks and other inhabitants of the natural world.” )
The Impact on the Higher Education and Research Industry
It is worth thinking through how this demographic shift will impact the higher education and research industry. Combine the forecast above with recent remarks made by Johns Hopkins University Provost Lloyd B. Minor:
“Clayton Christensen is a Harvard Business School professor and author of The Innovator’s Dilemma. Christensen and colleagues have just released a study predicting that new models of instruction are going to reshape the landscape of higher education in the coming decades. They see online education as an emerging disruptive innovation that will dramatically improve both the quality and affordability of instruction.”
That last piece — the quality, the affordability, and the accessibility of higher education (and the earlier education preparing students for higher education) — will be a crucial problem for the next generation of global leaders to solve. Provost Minor continues:
“They looked at higher education and this is what they found: three fundamentally different and incompatible business models all housed within the same organization. Each of the three is trying to achieve three different goals—one part is research, one part is teaching, and the third part is practice, including caring for patients and solving practical problems.”
The three-part business model of the modern research university, while unwieldy at times, is the key to its success in solving big problems. The research mission of the modern university develops the technology required for the continued progress of everything from health care to the military to environmental science. The teaching mission of the modern university shapes the intellect and productive capacity of future generations. The practice mission brings quality and performance to the world (you need no further proof of this than to be treated at a top teaching hospital . . . then to be treated at a Minute Clinic).
Provost Minor ends on a wonderfully inspiring note for the next generation of leaders in the higher education and research industry:
” . . . when I think about the challenges our universities will be asked to address in the next two decades, certain overarching topics and themes emerge. These are the big challenges, such as sustainable energy and the environment; the global water crisis; the promise of individualized health; the challenge of an urbanizing world.
At 30,000 feet, two things become evident. First, these are immensely complex and challenging problems that will not be resolved with a simple solution or a silver bullet. And second, it is the modern research university that is uniquely equipped to grapple with these challenges and find viable solutions.”
That last line is truly inspiring. When attending cross-industry conferences, I always find it remarkable how enthusiastic higher education and research professionals are — much more so than professionals from other industries, based on my observation. Why is that? Why are we so enthusiastic about solving big problems? One reason is that we have been at it a long time — much longer than many other successful enterprises.
Take, for example, the top 20 Fortune 500 companies. Their average age is 106.9 years. These 20 companies have a combined 2,138 years — two millennia! — of experience. That is a long time in the business world. Many of these companies trace their lineage back over several mergers and acquisitions to historic companies. The oldest is Citigroup at 199 years; founded as City Bank of New York in 1812.
Compare that to the higher education and research industry. The average age of the Top 20 global universities is 248.5 — well over twice that of the top 20 Fortune 500 companies. These universities have a combined 4,971 years of experience! The oldest is the University of Oxford at 915 years old, founded in 1096. The first scholars at Oxford were very likely alive during the Battle of Hastings!
So, back to the original questions.
What are the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century? They are many, but I will be focusing my efforts on those challenges facing the higher education and research industry: affordable and accessible instruction, game-changing scientific research, and high quality professional practice. The obstacles in the way of success in those areas will be my targets.
What are the characteristics of the next generation of global leaders? Next generation leaders in our industry will see big problems as solvable, see small problems as manageable, see their responsibility to help solve both, and see success as inevitable.
The last question I leave open to all of us. What would you do to shape the global future?
38.908018
-77.038080
